NRF Forecasts Retail Sales to Exceed $4.33T in 2021 as Vaccine Rollout Expands – National Retail Federation February 24, 2021

WASHINGTON – The National Retail Federation today issued its annual forecast, anticipating that retail sales will grow between 6.5 percent and 8.2 percent to more than $4.33 trillion in 2021 as more individuals get vaccinated and the economy reopens.NRF expects the overall economy to gain between 220,000 and 300,000 jobs per month in 2021, depending on the pace of the overall economy in the second and third quarters. Despite the economy’s stalled momentum at the end of last year, NRF forecasts real GDP growth between 4.5 percent and 5.0 percent.

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Surge In Consumer Spending Poised To Make 2021 A Record Year For Retail – BISNOW March 24, 2021

In tracking consumer spending habits among those using Chase cards, JPMorgan found that March 2021 spending so far is on pace to be 23.9% higher than the same month a year ago. Though that month was affected by the onset of the pandemic, that still represents a surge that will likely continue as stimulus money courses through the economy.

A recent survey by UBS also found that households making more than $80K a year plan to increase their spending more than any other income bracket as the economy reopens. That will happen even without the help of stimulus money, which some upper-income households aren’t getting anyway, Yahoo reports.

Those companies aren’t alone in forecasting strong consumer spending this year. Pent-up demand and a return to more normal economic conditions are poised to drive retail sales and the overall economy at record speeds not seen in more than a generation, JLL predicts.

“We anticipate the fastest growth rate in GDP since 1984 and we expect consumers to fuel that drive,” JLL said in a note published Tuesday. “Nominal retail and food services sales stand a good chance of setting a record for calendar-year growth and real retail and food services sales could reach the fastest calendar-year growth rate since demobilization at the end of World War II in 1946.”

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